Gold closed down by only $1.80 to finish the comex session at $1749.50. ?Silver however refused to fall as it rose by 3 cents to $34.14.
As far as the precious metals is concerned, the big news of the day is the huge open interest in silver.It seems that some major players are wishing to take on the banks and it looks like December will be a humdinger of a delivery month.
In other news, we saw elections in Catalonia elect the Mas, who wishes to secede from Spain.
Let's see if anyone buys any Spanish bonds.
The EU meet today trying to solver the bailout situation with respect to Greece. ?Late in the day (4 am their time) a deal was struck to have Greece with a GDP of 124/100 by 2020. ?Good luck in achieving that!!!
As far as Spain is concerned we finally got news on the austerity package for this Iberian nation.
To receive the funds to bail out the banks, Spain must fire 8,000 bankers (from the nationalized bank Bankia plus Galicia bank which was nationalized)
Egypt last night saw it's stock exchange plunge 9% as citizens rebel against their new leader Morsi. ?The citizens are angry that the country is turning into an?Islamist? religious state instead of a secular state.
We will go over all of these stories plus others but first................................................................
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading today.
The total comex gold open interest complex rose an astonishing 14,106 contracts as gold skyrocketed $23.00 on Friday. ?No doubt, the bankers were forced to supply the necessary paper to keep gold ( and ?silver) in check. The non active gold month of November saw it's OI fall by 15 contracts from 32 down to 15. We had 21 delivery notices on Friday so in essence we gained another 6 contracts or 600 oz of gold. ?The big delivery month of December has first day notice this Friday. ?The December contract OI fell by the usual 8,668 contracts as all of these paper sells, landed in February and in April. The estimated volume at the gold comex today was a rather high 209,599. The confirmed volume on Friday was also very high at 215,294. ?The bankers are flexing their muscles willing to take on all newcomers.
The total silver comex defies all odds by rising again and this time by a huge 3,934 contracts. ?The non active front month of November saw it's OI rise by 1 contract. ?We had 0 delivery notices on Friday so we gained one contract or 5,000 oz of additional silver oz will stand in November. The big December contract is causing our bankers to have multiple cluster headaches as they are all visiting their local pharmacist for head pain. The December contract month saw only a very tiny contraction of 92 contracts, from 44,009 down to 43,917. ?Ladies and Gentlemen expect another of those midnight oil meetings tonight and let us wait to see what the bankers decide to do. The estimated volume today was an astronomical 96,431 compared to the confirmed volume on Friday at 54,593.
I would expect that we had a considerable number of paper players roll into March today judging from the volume today.
Comex gold figures?
Nov 26-.2012
(first day notice for the December contract will be Nov 30.2012) ??
?
| Withdrawals from?Dealers?Inventory in oz | |
| Withdrawals from?Customer?Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the?Dealer?Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the?Customer?Inventory, in oz | 868.05 (Scotia) |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the?Dealers?inventory this month | |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the?Customer?inventory this month | 177,499.76 |
Today, we ?had ?a very bit of activity ?inside the gold vaults.?
The dealer had one deposits ?and no ? withdrawals.Dealer deposit: into Brinks: ?4199.78 oz
The customer had 1 deposits:i) Into Scotia: 868.05 oz
total customer deposit: ?868.05 oz
we had 0 ?customer withdrawals.
Adjustments: none
Thus the dealer inventory rests tonight at 2.528 million oz (78.50) tonnes of gold.
The CME reported that we had ? 0 notices ?filed ?for zero oz of gold.?The total number of notices filed so far this month is thus 376 notices or 37,600 oz of gold.To determine what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for November (17) and subtract out today's notices (0) which leaves us with 17 notices or 1700 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus the total number of gold ounces standing for delivery in November is as follows:
37,600 oz (served) ?+ ?1700 oz (to be served upon) ?= ?39,300 oz (1.222 tonnes of gold). ?We ?gained 600 ?gold ounces standing at the gold comex today and everyday we have gained additional gold ounces standing for November.
Silver:
Nov 26.2012:first day notice for the December contract will be Nov 30.2012:
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from?Dealers?Inventory | nil |
| Withdrawals from?Customer?Inventory? | 157,945.62 (,Scotia) |
| Deposits to the?Dealer?Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer?Inventory | 690,125.67 (Delaware,Scotia) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 1 ?(5,000) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | ?8 (40,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 65 ?(325,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the?Dealers?inventory this month | 1,342,073.5 |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the?Customer?inventory this month | 6,004,036.1 |
Today, we had a fair bit of activity inside the silver vaults.
?we had no dealer deposit and no ?dealer withdrawals
We had two customer deposits of silveri) into Delaware: ?8,448.42 oz
ii) into Scotia: ?681,677.25 oz
total customer deposit: ?690,125.67 oz
we had one customer withdrawal:
i) out of Scotia: ?157,945.62 oz
Registered silver remains tonight ?at a very low : ?35.054 million oz
total of all silver: ?141.846 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 1 notices filed for 5,000 oz .?The total number of silver notices filed ?this month remains at 65 contracts or 325,000 oz of silver. ?
To determine the number of silver ounces standing for November, I take the OI standing for November (9) and subtract out today's notices (1) which leaves us with 8 notices or 40,000 oz ready to be served upon.Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active month of November is as follows:
325,000 oz (served) + ?40,000 oz ( to be served upon) ?= ?365,000 oz
we ?gained 5,000 oz of silver standing at the silver comex. ?
The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
Total Gold in Trust ? Nov 26.2012
Total Gold in Trust
Tonnes:1,342.20
Ounces:43,152,988.94
Value US$:75,515,972,852.04
Nov 23.2012:
TOTAL GOLD IN TRUST
Tonnes:1,342.20
Ounces:43,152,988.94
Value US$:74,827,992,666.94
Nov 21.2012:
TOTAL GOLD IN TRUST
Tonnes:1,342.20
Ounces:43,152,988.94
Value US$:74,376,524,720.40
Nov 20.2012:
TOTAL GOLD IN TRUST
Tonnes:1,342.20
Ounces:43,152,988.94
Value US$:74,733,351,973.30
Nov 19.2012:
TOTAL GOLD IN TRUST
Tonnes:1,342.20
Ounces:43,152,988.94
Value US$:74,658,653,247.28
NOV 16.2012:
TOTAL GOLD IN TRUST
Tonnes:1,342.63
Ounces:43,166,879.89
Value US$:73,927,254,789.60
Nov 15.2012:
TOTAL GOLD IN TRUST
Tonnes:1,339.62
Ounces:43,069,992.38
Value US$:73,611,301,419.07
?
we neither gained nor lost any gold today at the GLD
and now for silver:
Nov 26.2012:
nov 23.2012:
Nov 21:2012:
Nov 20.2012:
Nov 19.2012:
??
Today, we lost no silver nor did we gain any into the SLV
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow: ?
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.?
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded to a positive 4.9 percent to NAV in usa funds and a positive 4.9% ?to NAV for Cdn funds. ( Nov 26.2012) ??
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV remain at ?0.77% NAV ?Nov 26/2012
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV ?rose to 1.94% positive to NAV Nov 26/2012.?
The silver Sprott fund announced a big silver purchase and this reduces the premium to NAV temporarily. ?It seems that the bankers are picking on Sprott to short their funds trying to cause an avalanche in selling in the precious metals. ?They are foolhardy in their attempt.
It looks like England may have trouble in finding gold and silver for its clients.
It is worth watching the premium for gold at the Sprott funds which is a good indicator of shortage as investors bid up the premiums.
?
???
Here are you major physical stories:
It seems the Indian Central bank is telling to truth: ?it wishes to 'dematerialize' gold.
The citizens of India have no real faith in their rupee so they are switching the paper currency for gold.
(courtesy GATA)
Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2012-11-25 16:43.?Section:?Daily Dispatches
If only India would try "dematerializing" its central bank instead.
* * *
Reserve Bank Official Supports 'Dematerialisation' to Arrest Rising Gold Demand
From The Economic Times
(The Times of India, Mumbai)
Sunday, November 25, 2012
PUNE, India -- Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn today said there is a need to "dematerialise" gold like any other financial product to reduce its physical imports, the rise of which has been blamed for the high current account deficit that is feared to touch new record high this year.
High gold imports are "creating some macroeconomic stresses and so the challenge is to find ways to replicate the financial characteristics of gold without necessarily causing physical importing," Gokarn told the last day of the two-day annual Bancon conference here.
The current account deficit has been rising on the back of record trade deficits, which in October jumped to a 12-year high of $21 billion on the back of rising oil and gold imports.
Reeling out the high gold import data, Gokarn said a working group headed by KUB Rao of RBI will shortly be coming out with its report on the ways to deal with the problem arising from high gold imports on the macroeconomic front in the form of balance of payments.
He said while global gold output has stayed stable at around 4,000 tonne per year, the domestic [Indian] consumption of the yellow metal has doubled to 1,000 tonnes annually since 1999, despite a massive rally in the gold price.
"More expensive gold is being imported in larger quantities, which is compounding the trouble," he said.
As gold imports touched a record high last year, pushing up the current account deficit to a historic high of 4.2 per cent in the year, the Reserve Bank has unveiled a slew of curbs on gold purchases and financing.
Last fiscal year there was a 39 per cent rise in gold imports and in gross terms it constituted 80 per cent of the current account deficit, which reached an all-time high of 4.2 per cent, Gokarn said, adding that the net gold imports constitute for 1.8 to 2.4 per cent of GDP.
This spike in gold demand was in spite of the record price rally that the metal witnessed last fiscal year.
In April the RBI brought down the loan to value that gold loan companies like Muthoot Finance or Manappuram Finance could offer to just 60 per cent of the market value, from a high of 85-90 per cent.
In the October 30 credit policy, the RBI also banned banks from funding gold buying by gold loan companies and non-banking financial companies.end
And now gold trading from Europe and Asia early this morning.
Note the huge deposits of gold into Turkey:
(courtesy Goldcore)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/26/2012 08:51 -0500 Via Goldcore,
Today?s AM fix was USD 1,747.25, EUR 1,347.56, and GBP 1,090.87 per ounce.
Friday?s AM fix was USD 1,734.75, EUR 1,345.39, and GBP 1,088.37 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $34.12/oz, ?26.43/oz and ?21.40/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,616.00/oz, palladium at $660.50/oz and rhodium at $1,060/oz.
Gold rose $21.80 or 1.26% in New York on Friday and closed at $1,751.20. Silver hit a high of $34.16 and finished with a gain of 2.19%. Gold was up 2.28% for the week and silver soared 5.61% for the week.
Gold edged down on a Monday as speculators took their profits as prices rallied on thin volumes on Friday to their highest in a month on technical buying. A strong fall in the greenback triggered rapid gains in commodities and options-related buying on Friday.
XAU/USD 1 Year ? (Bloomberg)
Tonight US Congress will meet to attempt to devise a plan to avert the US fiscal cliff which will throw the US into a spiral of tax hikes and budgetary cuts that will lead the US economy deeper into a recession this January.
Another short term ?resolution? will almost certainly be achieved which will allow the US to keep spending like a broke drunken sailor and which will again store up far greater fiscal and monetary problems. The scale of these deep rooted structural challenges is so great that they are likely to affect the US sooner rather than later.
The euro racked up a seven month high against the yen and is holding near a one month high against the US dollar as the meetings amongst Greek creditors continue and hope to reach an outcome today.
Greece?s goal is reducing the 190% debt to GDP ratio to a more manageable 120% in eight to ten years. The dilemma is that the IMF and eurozone finance ministers want to cease payments until a new deal is agreed because they have no guarantee that the financing won?t continue indefinitely.
Can Greek debt become manageable without creditors writing off some of the loans? France and Italy would vote to reduce interest repayments on already granted loans while other countries like Germany would not.
A consensus was reached when German central bank governor Jens Weidmann suggested that Greece could "earn" a reduction in debt it owes to euro zone governments in a few years if it diligently implements all the agreed reforms. The European Commission also supports this view.
Global investment demand for gold remains robust with the amount in exchange-traded products backed by the metal rising 0.1% to 2,606.3 metric tons.
Meanwhile reports of the death of the Indian gold buyer have again been greatly exaggerated as India's net gold import for domestic consumption is likely to be about 800 tonnes this year following a pick-up in demand during the festive season, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
Last year, the net import for domestic consumption was 969 tonnes. This is a significant fall but not surprising considering the sharply rising price. It shows that the Indian cultural attachment to gold will continue and India may be becoming acclimatised to higher gold prices.
This week US economic data for Tuesday include Durable Orders, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index, Consumer Confidence, and the FHFA Housing Price Index. On Wednesday, New Home Sales and the Fed?s Beige Book are published. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP, and Pending Home Sales can be viewed. Friday?s data is Personal Income and Spending, Core PCE Prices, and Chicago PMI.
Cross Currency Table ? (Bloomberg)
Gold deposits in Turkey have grown from 3.1 billion liras to 16 billion liras in the past year, Bloomberg reported on news reported in the daily Turkish newspaper Aksam which cited Denizbank AS gold banking group manager Cem Turgut Gelgor.
According to the Turkish bank Denizbank, one of the largest in Turkey, it collected 1.5 tons of gold in 7 months.
Deposits have increased from 500 kg to over 6 tons or over 192,000 ounces (worth some ?260 million) over an unspecified period.
Kuveyt Turk Katilim Bankasi AS has added 3.8 tons of gold, Aksam quotes Kuveyt Turk product development group manager Mustafa Dereci as saying. Dereci said that Kuveyt Turk is providing new products such as ?gold from the ATM.?
The World Gold Council estimates that there are around 5,000 tons of gold remaining outside the financial system, gold which the Turkish people have prudently accumulated over the years as a store of wealth to protect from currency depreciation and debasement.
Gold jewellery producer and wholesaler Karakas Atlantis Kiymetli Madenler AS is ?working to bring unregistered gold into the system,? Chairman Kamil Karakas says in e-mailed statement today reported on by Bloomberg.
The gold wholesaler is meeting regularly with jewelers and banks in effort to draw unregistered gold assets into financial system.
Separately Turkey is aiming to position itself as a leading player in the gold jewellery and bullion industry by also becoming one of the leading gold and precious metal refining countries in the world.
Turkey is at a level to compete with international gold refining centers like Germany and Switzerland, Istanbul Gold Exchange deputy chairman Osman Sarac said today according to Dunya newspaper.
Turkey imports scrap gold mostly from Germany and the United Arab Emirates, the gold is turned into standard bullion coins and bars in Turkish refineries and exported.
Turkey imported 114.8 tons of gold by Nov. 14 this year, of which 46.6 tons was scrap, according to Istanbul Gold Exchange data.
NEWSWIRE
(Bloomberg) -- Iran?s Gold Reserves High Enough to Meet Needs: Central Bank
Iran has enough gold to fulfill domestic needs for next 15 years, Central Bank Governor Mahmoud Bahmani says, according to state media.
Bahmani spoke at summit in Islamabad: Fars.
Iran does not use gold to barter foreign goods: Bahmani.
Bahmani seeks increased use of local currencies in trade: Press TV.
Bahmani called for establishment of joint bank between D-8 member states: Press TV.
NOTE: Iran, Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Bangladesh and Indonesia form D-8 group.
For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.
NEWS
Gold comes off 1-month high despite firmer euro - Reuters
Gold up nearly $20 to finish higher for the week ? MarketWatch
Turkey Confirms Gold Exports Linked to Iran Gas Purchases - $6.4 Billion of gold to Iran in the first nine months of 2012? Zawya
Millions to strike in India over rising prices ? The National
Catalans take step towards break-up vote ? The Financial Times
EU ministers to discuss Greek debt ? The Irish Times
COMMENTARY
This Move in Gold and Silver is Going to Shock People; $3,000/oz Possible ? King World News
On Artificial Interest Rates And The Forfeiture Of Growth For Dividends ? Zero Hedge
Silver To Rise Fivefold ? Max Keiser
And now Adrian Ash with his commentary on gold trading in Europe this morning:
(most of these stories I have discussed with you but worth repeating)
(courtesy Adrian Ash/Bullionvault)
By: Ben Traynor, BullionVault |
| -- Posted Monday, 26 November 2012 | | Source: GoldSeek.com London Gold Market Report U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold fell back below $1750 an ounce, a few Dollars below where they closed last week following Friday's rally, while stocks and commodities also edged lower and US Treasuries gained ahead of further discussion on Greece at today's meeting of Euro finance ministers. Silver meantime dipped briefly below $34 an ounce this morning, though it remained within 1% of Friday's one-month high. On Friday, spot gold rallied in US trading to close above $1750 an ounce for the first time in over a month. One analyst this morning called Friday's move a "technical breakout" enabled by "illiquid trading conditions" a day after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the US. "We'd like to see prices above $1760 to confirm the move," adds a note from ANZ. That would pave the way for a test of $1790-$1800...[but] We think $1800 will prove to be a step too far in the current market, and remain confident in year-end forecast of $1780." Over in India, where a central bank official talked today of the benefits of investing in "dematerialized gold", bullion importers today opted not to buy new stock for the wedding season, with the Rupee weakening against the Dollar. Eurozone finance ministers meet today to discuss Greece, following last Tuesday's meeting that ended without agreement to pay Athens its latest tranche of bailout funding. Policymakers are yet to agree on how Greece should reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio, with the aim of bringing it down to 120% over the next decade. Some Euro members have suggested reducing the interest rates Greece pays on its loans, while Germany is reported to favor allowing Greece to buy back some of its debt at below face value. In a closed-door meeting last week German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble reportedly told his counterparts from France, Italy and Spain, as well as International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, that Germany might eventually write off some of its loans to Greece. At the Eurozone finance ministers meeting the next day however Schaeuble ruled this out. "It turns out that Schaeuble may have exceeded his mandate from the Chancellery, if he had one," one EU official told Reuters. Elsewhere in Europe, two thirds of the vote went to pro-independence parties in yesterday's regional elections in Catalonia, with the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) party, one of several parties that have called for a referendum on Catalonia's independence from Spain, more than doubling its number of seats in the regional assembly in elections held Sunday. The Convergencia i Unio party of Catalan president Artur Mas won 50 of the 135 seats, down from 62, Bloomberg reports, meaning Mas does not have a majority in the assembly. "With a majority, Mas could have negotiated [with the national government in Madrid] for all kinds of goodies to postpone the referendum but clearly that's not an option anymore," says Ken Dubin, political scientist at Carlos III University in Madrid. Despite being Spain's richest region, Catalonia requested a ?5 billion bailout from the national government back in August. Mas has called for independent tax collection and has said net transfers from Catalonia to other regions are to blame for its financial difficulties. Over in India meantime, rules restricting banks from buying gold back from customers are "a work in progress", the Reserve Bank of India's deputy governor Subir Gokarn told a conference Monday. Gokarn also elaborated on last week's announcement that the authorities are looking at creating investment products linked to gold to satisfy demand in a country that is traditionally the world's biggest god buying nation, and which imports the vast majority of its bullion. "Since current account deficit is large and capital flows are becoming more uncertain," Gokarn said, "the role of innovation is to find ways to not deny the ability or choice of investing in gold... can we find ways to give [people] gold like products, what one may call dematerialized gold, with gold like qualities but are not entirely dependent on physical possession." Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+ |
end
The anatomy of the silver manipulation fraud.? This is an important read for all of us
(courtesy Ted Butler)
A Manipulation Timeline
|November 26, 2012 - 10:28am
A friend and long-time subscriber who intends to write a book about the silver manipulation asked if I could provide him with a bit of history. To my mind, the silver manipulation dates back to early 1983, when the commercial traders grew confident that they could sell any quantity of paper short contracts to the technical fund buyers on the COMEX. By that time the commercials learned that technical fund buyers would never take physical delivery and could be counted on to buy or sell based upon price signals that the commercials could easily influence and control. In essence, the game has remained remarkably similar ever since.
While the commercials learned to behave collusively when dealing with the technical funds, there was an additional requirement that there would be one large commercial standing ready to be the short seller of last resort to backstop the combined commercial effort. Without a ?Mr. Big? standing behind and guaranteeing that the combined commercial effort to trick the technical funds would never get overpowered, the long term silver manipulation would not have been possible. Over the past 30 years, there have been a series of Mr. Big?s that have been the paper silver short sellers of last resort. Therefore, the history of the silver manipulation can be recorded along the lines of who was the big short seller at any particular time.
In 1983, the big COMEX silver short seller was Drexel Burnham Lambert, although the origination of Drexel?s short position began earlier at J. Aaron and A.C. Leon Israel (ACLI). After Drexel went bankrupt in the late 1980?s, the Drexel Trading operation was taken over by AIG Trading. Around 2004, the big silver short position was transferred to Bear Stearns. I believe AIG was forced to dispose and transfer their big short silver position on the COMEX due to pressure from then-NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer who in turn was pressured by public petitions to crack down on the concentrated short position. Nine years ago, I wrote a number of articles (available in the archives) which focused on AIG as the big COMEX silver short. I couldn?t know it at the time, but it appears most likely that the transfer from AIG to Bear Stearns was due to Spitzer. http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary/12-08-03.htmlI knew sometime in 2004 that AIG Trading ceased being the big silver short on the COMEX, by virtue of its disappearance from COMEX silver delivery transactions and withdrawal from the LBMA, but I wouldn?t learn until late 2008 that Bear Stearns had become AIG?s replacement as silver?s Mr. Big. Only in November 2008 would I learn that Bear Stearns? big silver (and gold) COMEX short position was transferred to JPMorgan in March of that year. This revelation was due to CFTC correspondence to various lawmakers indicating that the sudden jump in the short position in the US bank category of the August 2008 Bank Participation Report was due to the JPMorgan takeover of Bear Stearns. Commodity law prohibits the agency from identifying traders by name (unless charged with wrongdoing), so the letters to congressmen and senators didn?t mention either Bear Stearns or JPMorgan by name; but no other institutional merger could match with the public record.
This revelation was the pivotal point in the silver manipulation timeline. For one thing, it shined an ugly light on the CFTC. The Commission had just published in May 2008 a public denial that there was anything wrong with the concentrated short position in COMEX silver. This was the agency?s second public letter on the issue in four years.
The only problem was that, two months before the report was published; Bear Stearns went bankrupt, arguably, because of its giant silver short position. In the two or three months before its demise, Bear Stearns had lost one billion dollars on its silver short position; no one can deny that would have contributed to the Bear blow up. For the Commission not mention this in their 16-page report is lying by omission, as I have previously claimed.
But what made the CFTC?s revelation that JPMorgan was the new Mr. Big on the short side of silver so significant was that it put a name on the seller of last resort in no uncertain terms. I can?t stress enough the difference this has had. Until November 2008, I was forced to describe the silver manipulators as nameless colluders or as the four or less largest traders. Talk about boring and unspecific. Certainly, I had strong suspicions of who the previous Mr. Big was, otherwise I wouldn?t have been writing to and about AIG in 2003. And while JPMorgan was always included on my list of the big firms that dominated silver, until November 2008 I never identified Bear Stearns as a potential silver manipulator. I am the ultimate outsider and have no inside Wall Street connections; I rely on public data exclusively. It was that data (COT and Bank Participation Reports, plus CFTC correspondence) that identifies JPMorgan as the current Mr. Big and main silver manipulator. This has made all the difference in the history of the silver manipulation and its ultimate resolution. It goes without saying that I would not continuously refer to JPMorgan as crooks without irrefutable evidence.
Because I could never prove conclusively, prior to November 2008, the certain identity of the big silver short, I could only intimate or beat around the bush; I could not point to the one specific entity backstopping the commercials. For years, after acquiring 130 million oz in 1998, Warren Buffett was a very big paper short seller on the COMEX (against Berkshire Hathaway silver holdings) until he got caught short in late 2005 and lost his giant silver hoard at $7. As was the case with Bear Stearns, I never realized Buffett was shorting silver on the COMEX until long after he stopped. This is what makes learning that JPMorgan is the big short in silver so important ? for the very first time, the knowledge is in the present tense. JPMorgan is the big silver short right now.
From my point of view, it shouldn?t make a difference if we know the identity of the entity behind the silver manipulation as long as the public data indicate a level of concentration proving a manipulation exists. The level of concentration on the short side of COMEX silver leaves no possibility that the price isn?t manipulated. That?s why the CFTC has stalled for more than four years in its investigation. That investigation began shortly before it was revealed that JPMorgan was the big short. But if the case alleging manipulation by reason of excessive concentration was compelling enough for a third silver investigation, the revelation that JPMorgan was the manipulator raised the matter to a completely different level. It would not be an understatement to say that JPMorgan?s involvement has created an unprecedented circumstance.
I have never experienced, or even imagined, a situation where a major financial institution could be openly and continuously accused of violating the law with no strong rebuttal from that institution. I doubt any of you have experienced or imagined such a situation either. But life is about learning and experiencing and that includes the silver manipulation. I can understand JPMorgan?s silence, as I can?t imagine they would desire an open discussion based upon the public facts. Better for JPM to ignore the allegations and hope they will fade in time; why inflame the situation? Unfortunately for them, the last thing that is happening is any fading in the finger-pointing at JPMorgan. Based upon recent indications that JPMorgan has markedly increased its concentrated silver short position, the bank may be stuck and unable to gracefully exit its silver short position.
One thing that I don?t think that JPMorgan can easily pull off is something that previous Mr. Big?s in silver managed, namely, transferring the silver short position to someone else. Under the threat of bankruptcy or legal pressure, Drexel, AIG and Bear Stearns all dumped the short silver position on someone new. But few knew these firms were the big silver short at the time of the transfer. In contrast, many are aware that JPMorgan is the big silver manipulator, making a transfer of the manipulative position much more difficult.
The real-time knowledge that JPMorgan is the big concentrated silver short not only represents the pinnacle of the history of the silver manipulation, almost by definition that knowledge must also be at the core of the manipulation?s future. JPMorgan has been the prime price determinant since the Bear Stearns takeover in March 2008 and they will remain responsible for the price of silver as long as they maintain their concentrated short position. Seeing how there is little likelihood of a transfer of the concentrated short position, the question becomes ? can JPMorgan maintain and increase its COMEX silver short position indefinitely? I say not a chance.
While I can?t pinpoint the timing, there is no way that JPMorgan can continue to manipulate silver forever. I?m assuming that the CFTC will not start to deliberately misreport the data in the COT and Bank Participation Reports because they never have done so in the past; but even that would only postpone JPMorgan abandoning its silver price manipulation. I know that many believe that JPMorgan is invincible, fortified by protection from the US Government, but some things transcend even the most powerful of large organizations. Forces of nature and basic laws of physics and supply and demand will always overwhelm human attempts to subvert those forces; the only question is when. In any market, an artificial price level caused by an intentional manipulation distorts the law of supply and demand and must end violently at some point.
Silver?s price level is and has been artificially depressed due to JPMorgan?s concentrated short position. In addition to the negative publicity that has been attached to JPM, this concentrated paper short position has impacted the underlying host physical market in a manner that can?t be sustained. By artificially depressing the price, JPMorgan has set in motion a more powerful counter-force of stronger physical silver demand and weaker physical supply than there would have been otherwise. The artificial low price makes it a certainty that physical demand must overwhelm real silver supply and at that point, additional paper short sales by JPMorgan will not matter. If the market is demanding physical silver and that metal isn?t available, paper silver will not be accepted as a substitute. The minute that occurs, there will be a radically different price structure in silver; quite literally almost overnight. That hasn?t occurred yet, despite the long term climb in the price, but the signs are growing that we are drawing close, mainly in the form of unusually frantic movements in the big silver depositories. The important thing to remember is that regardless of how many years and decades that the silver manipulation has been in place, when it ends, it will end in a virtual instant. That?s why it?s better to be positioned early in silver, rather than late.
Ted Butler
November 21, 2012
end
we are finally getting into the mainstream press. ?Today GATA was discussed in the Austrian national newspaper Die Presse in Vienna. ?It seems that Austrians are worried that their gold has been compromised.
Maybe they should have listened to us at the CFTC hearings two years ago
(courtesy GATA/Austrian newspaper Die Presse)
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2012-11-26 17:45.?Section:?Daily Dispatches12:43p ET Monday, November 26, 2012
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The Austrian Press Agency today cited GATA at length in its follow-up story about the status of the Austrian central bank's gold and the possibility of an audit. The story has been published by the Austrian national newspaper Die Presse in Vienna --
-- and as well as by other Austrian news organizations:
A translation of the APA story by our friend the German freelance journalist Lars Schall is appended.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
Auditors Could Fail in Taking Reliable Inventory of Austrian Gold
The U.S.-based organization Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee alleges that Western central banks have manipulated the price of gold for decades.
By Austrian Press Agency
via Die Presse, Vienna
Monday, November 26, 2012
The Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) last week revealed a lot about the 280 tons of gold held by the Republic of Austria, but to which part of it they really have access is hard to identify, according to a U.S. organization that has been working for 15 years on the international gold market.
"In order to know that, the bank would have to disclose not only how much it has lent out up to date, but also whether the gold is held in allocated or unallocated accounts," Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) told APA over the weekend.
The OeNB was forced to admit last week in Parliament that 80 percent of Austria's national gold is in London and explained that the bank has earned 300 million euros in the past decade with gold-leasing operations. After an expert commented that this suggested that a large part of the gold was leased out, the bank leaked that currently only 16 percent of the reserves are affected. The bank gave no explanation for the relatively high income from gold lending.
According to GATA, allocated gold means that the bars are accurately weighted and have serial numbers that can be directly attributed to the owner and the bars must be handed over at the depositor's request. Unallocated gold is merely a claim against the storing institution, in this case, for example, the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
GATA believes that these claims are unsecured; whether this is really the case was never officially announced. Institutions such as BoE and BIS conduct gold swaps by a volume of several hundred tons each per year.
In the case of unallocated gold, the OeNB would have had neither the right to get particular bars back nor would there be a list that could be used for an inventory of the physical assets.
"As a consequence it could be virtually impossible to audit reliably a large part of the gold reserves," GATA Secretary Powell said in his email. As has been reported, in 2013 the Austrian Court of Auditors will review the National Bank and its foreign exchange reserves, but to date it has left open whether this will include the physical gold holdings.
GATA alleges that Western central banks have manipulated the price of gold for decades to support their currencies -- especially the U.S. dollar -- and to maintain artificially low interest rates. Many of these gold transactions are carried out with reserves of central banks, so they may be storing in their vaults only half the gold that officially counted.
Critics dismiss this as "conspiracy theory" and describe these theories as "far-fetched". But GATA publishes on its Internet site (http://www.gata.org) official documents and statements that more or less should prove secret interventions by central banks.end ?
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA/Kingworld news/John Embry/Robert Fitzwilson)
Massive shorting of gold and silver is being challenged, Embry says
2:42p ET Monday, November 26, 2012
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Massive shorting is occurring in the gold and silver futures market, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King World News today, but the open interest keeps rising because, it seems, buyers who are not easily shaken out have figured out the paper game and are challenging the market riggers. An excerpt from Embry's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_Daily
Web/Entries/2012/11/26_W...
And fund manager Robert Fitzwilson tells King World News why he thinks a chaotic phase in the world economy is about to begin:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KW
N_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/11/25_C...
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
end
I do not know the validity of the following news story as it was presented this evening at Lemetropolecafe.
If true it would be far reaching..an big European bank caught short, shipped tungsten filled gold bars to cover their shortfall:
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/gold-fraud-exclusive-eu-and-asian-sources
-allege-the-tungsten-switch-has-gone-sovereign/
Fool?s Gold??Deutsche Bank, China, and US embroiled in faking suspicions
On and off for over five years now, I?ve been reporting on the existence or otherwise of (1) the gold the US Federal Treasury claims to have stored securely at various points across America and (2) a fix/manipulation scam on the price of gold per se. When I first raised these points (along with thousands of other sites) in late 2006, we were all of us consigned by the commentariat of the day to those Outer Limits reserved for The Loonies.
Since that time, we have seen the mysteriously dramatic rise in the level of Chinese gold reserves, the admission by several central banks that they?ve been buying and selling the stuff below the radar, and the scandals involving manipulation of the Libor and Eubor rates which, on their own, make the claims of gold jiggery-pokery look considerably more credible.
During 2009, I reported a couple of times about major gold investors known to me personally who were having trouble persuading Swiss storage facilities to cough up the shiny metal, once those gold-bugs decided they?d like to shift it to somewhere less remote than Cuckoo-clock land. Over the last few weeks, we have seen various sovereign States (led by Germany) saying they?d variously like to audit and/or shift their gold reserves nearer to home. The US Federal Reserve?s delay in obliging its clients with sight and shipping of said stocks has gone from being mildly amusing via odd to alarming.
But now a new fraud has entered the frame.
For those who don?t already know this, tungsten has very nearly? the same density as refined gold. Gold sells today at around $1740 an ounce, and Tungsten at $10 a pound. With a bit of judicious disguise, putting tungsten inside a gold bar can even fool an X-ray machine under certain circumstances. A Slog source in Austria is now alleging that Deutsche Bank ?fulfilled? one gold repatriation in recent years with the help of Tungsten. He further claims that some of this has now turned up in Asia.
However, here?s the killer: since hearing this rumour (actually, it?s rather more than that, but I have a source to protect here) I?ve made a couple of calls and read some well-argued websites on the subject of tungsten issues. One consistent feedback concerns the Chinese opinion on these bars.
Their origin is thought by Beijing to be the United States of America.
Forbes rubbished the?tungsten-in-gold story?last March, but from a commonsense viewpoint I was struck by the article?s (a) apparent inability to see beyond drilling and infilling as the method, and (b) the author?s unwillingness to see the problem as only likely to occur in smallish shipments. Late last September, however,?Zero Hedge?ran a Tyler Durden piece confirming that several smaller retail gold bars sold in Manhattan had been found to have tungsten innards. The ZH take on this event was that it might be part of yet another Fed Reserve attempt to impugn gold?s validity, and thus keep investors locked into the stock market, bonds and property.But the thing I?m hearing about in this instance ? while it could have the same Fed/Central Bank motive ? is on an entirely different scale. Here we are talking about an Establishment eurobank alleged to have been caught short on a fulfilment order, and using the tungsten scam to fill the gap.
This is an entirely different criminal intent: not the somewhat crude attempt to con a retail greenhorn, but rather an well-planned and sophisticated ?salting? of the gold bars by a major bank?.designed to fool even an expert engaged in approving the purchase for a large sovereign client. Here, using perhaps as little as 25% tungsten would be enough to make up the embarrassing shortfall.
There is no reason at all for anyone to see this as far-fetched. The SME scams pulled by RBS, and Libor manipulations carried out across the piece of Establishment banking, have been solid evidence in recent times of desperation on the part of those suddenly faced with a brave new world where Berlin wants all its gold back?.but the gold isn?t there any more.
The ramifications of this go far beyond a pro-am retail fraud. First off, ultimate discovery of the scam is a certainty: so you?d have to be pretty damned desperate to try it on. And second, I do find it intriguing that these reports have popped out of the woodwork just when the ECB is thought to be planning some form of gold-backing for any eventual eurobond issues ? should the eurozone survive. Trust me, if Mario Draghi is capable of pulling the stunts he?s been at vis-a-vis Greek bailout ?money?, Bank of Greece money-printing, and bondholder subordination, then like most Goldman Sachs graduates, he?s capable of anything.
As I write, gold is trading at the upper end of $1746-1751 per oz.
?end
And now your major paper stories which influences the price of gold and silver:
?We now get terms for Spain with respect to the bank bailouts. ?Spain will receive bailout cash but first they must fire 8,000 bankers at nationalized banks such as Bankia.
And this will solve Spain's problems with high unemployment already? ?These bankers are highly salaried and they pay taxes. ?Now it's the sovereign's turn to pay for these guys with unemployment benefits:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Submitted by?Tyler Durden?on 11/25/2012 09:07 -0500For those still unsure why Spain PM Mariano Rajoy is fighting tooth and nail to avoid requesting an official activation of the ECB's SMP reincarnation: the OMT, which is a conditional bond buying program supposedly pari passu with the private market (but not really) here is an explanation. While Spain already requested, and received, a bailout of its banking system, which according to eronous analyses by firms?such as Oliver Wyman will?be at most ?60 billion, and which according to others (such as us) will eventually end up costing orders of magnitude more once the green light for extortion is open for the New Normal modified vigilantes, said bailout would come with full conditions. Today we learn what a major condition of the first bank bailout tranche disbursement will be. It should come as no surprise to our readers- recall that?in May when discussing?the absolute lack of any actual austerity implementation we said, that "In fact, the epicenter of the current meltdown - Spanish banking - has seen only de-minimus headcount reduction over the past few years - so who is tightening their belts?" It seems someone at the Troika was paying attention, because as El Pais reported, European condition number 1 will be an epic bloodbath of pink slips come Monday, with Spanish banks expected to fire thousands of bank workers immediately and shut down 1,000 branches.
From Reuters:
European authorities will transfer 35 billion euros to Spain's state bank rescue fund on Dec. 15 in exchange for massive layoffs at Spain's four nationalised banks, including state-rescued Bankia, El Pais newspaper reported on Sunday.
The cash injection from European bailout funds will be disbursed to troubled Spanish banks two weeks after it is paid into Spain's bank restructuring fund, or FROB, the paper said.
Bankia, which sought a 23.5 billion euro bailout from the state in May, is expected to be forced to lay off up to 6,000 people from its current 20,000 staff, while NovaGalicia Bank is seen laying off 2,000 of its 5,800 workforce, said El Pais, citing European and banking sources.
Bankia and NovaGalicia Bank declined to comment on the report, which also said the banks would have to close 1,000 branches between the two of them.
Catalunya Caixa (CX) and Banco de Valencia, the other two nationalised lenders, are currently being sold off, and conditions would be imposed on the buyers, the paper said.
Spain's economy ministry also declined to comment on the date the aid could be disbursed to the state rescue fund, or the exact amounts the lenders would finally need.
This is the chart of bank employees we showed back in May:
So, the "massive" headcuts at the 4 nationalized banks will lower total bank headcount by... 3%. Surely this will fix Spain.
But the immediate problem for Spain is that these soon to be former 8000 workers at least used to collect paychecks, quite higher than average at that, and pay taxes on said earnings. That will soon end, and the immediate result will be even less government tax collections, even as the ongoing persistence in cutting any spending means the budget will continue to soar, and only pulling a Groupon, and revising the budget to exclude this, that and the other line item, will make Spain appear even remotely viable.
But the best news from today, and one we can't wait to witness first hand, will be Spanish cops and bankers protesting side by side against evil, and largely non-existent (sorry, the cut of the 13th annual salary is?not?belt tightening), austerity starting in 5... 4... 3...
Your opening Spanish 10 year bond yield: ( ?still close to 6% ) at around 7:30 am this morning.
GSPG10YR:IND
5.635000.01100?0.20%As of 07:06:38 ET on 11/26/2012.
Source: http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2012/11/silver-open-interest-rises-againsilver.html
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